2021 in geopolitics: what to watch
The election of Joe Biden marked a return to normal in U.S. foreign policy, as Biden has called it. However, without the support of the House and Senate, President Biden simply cannot unilaterally change the direction of the U.S. foreign policy. Moreover, the inherent constraints of the U.S. strengths and weaknesses in the geopolitical landscape also play an essential role in Biden’s policies for the next four years. The weight on President Biden’s shoulders will be intense more than ever from not only the external forces but also from the internal instability.
One month into the presidency, it has been clear for Biden that the Indo-Pacific region will be the most important place for U.S. foreign policy. Under the Trump administration, he revitalized the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, an informal forum between the United States, Japan, Australia, and India. Under Trump, the forum held numerous meetings for four years as well as conducted a joint naval exercise for the first time in October 2020. Biden will likely be in a stronger position to commit to this new alliance and advance what was left unfinished by Trump.
The Middle East will be the harder one to predict what Biden will do because it depends on how committed Biden is in the region. Israel was the first country in the Middle East to have a phone call with Biden, which might indicate that Israel will have an important position in American Middle East policy. Biden will try to revive the nuclear deal with Iran. However, the damage may have been done. Iran, even though it has shown willingness to get back to talk, is becoming more emboldened after Trump escalated tension with the country. Biden has signaled that he wanted to expand the scope of the nuclear deal to include other Iran’s activities such as their ballistic missile development and covert operation in the Middle East. Nevertheless, in doing so, he could risk dragging the negotiation process longer than expected.
Another contentious point is Russia, where Biden has openly stated that he would not seek another reset in the relationship with the country. This marks a break from previous administrations after the end of the Cold War as The U.S. under Biden will get more confrontational. Biden could impose harsher sanctions on Russia as well as implemented cyberattacks aimed at crippling the infrastructure of the country. Biden will also deepen cooperation with Central and Eastern European countries since Western Europe will not be willing to join America in a conflict with Russia due to business interests and cooperation.
In conclusion, rather than reversing Trump’s policies, Biden is more likely to take advantage of what is left of those policies and build upon it to form his own doctrine.