Invasion of Ukraine: How it would play out
With the prospect of an invasion increasing each day, and with even leaders sounding alarms about the possibility of a land war in Europe for the first time in more than 70 years, we need to look into all the information we have, the chances of an invasion, and the decisions leaders on both sides might make that would have profound impacts on Europe and the world as a whole.
Geopolitical Forecast
All measures have pointed towards a big and costly war between Ukraine and Russia with on estimates an initial casualty of 50,000 in the first week and millions of displaced people crossing the border into other European countries. Not only that, Russia’s advance into Ukraine would also be hindered by the opponent’s strategy. Ukraine knows very well that it cannot fight Russia directly, so it would rely on hybrid warfare tactics to disrupt the enemy’s supply chains and force the country to overextend its resources and efforts to commit to a prolonged war that would create discontent at home. This is evidenced by the support of the US and its allies towards the country, where there are many portable missiles and tools to make landmines and IEDs, but few tanks or planes. Ukrainian people know they cannot put up a direct fight against Russia without losing instantly, thus they would rather rely on guerilla warfare tactics and use weapons that could shoot down enemy tanks and planes with only rifle squads as the main fighting unit. Moreover, Eastern Europe is approaching early springs where phenomena of melting snow and flash foods hinder transportation and make traveling across regions difficult. This further provides defense against Russia’s mechanical transportation and gives time for Ukrainians to prepare defenses against Russian forces. With Russian ground vehicles being stuck in the mud, it would make them easy targets for Ukrainian man-wielding missiles to shoot and at risk of being sabotaged by partisans fighting behind the front lines. These factors will make the war in Ukraine last longer than what Russian leaders have planned and it would increase the casualty to the point where the Russian people cannot tolerate further military actions and antiwar sentiment will be generated at home.
Conclusion
It is not wise for Russia to stage an invasion of Ukraine at this time as all of the factors listed above, including change of seasons, Ukraine’s tactics, and costs of a prolonged war will only humiliate Russia on the international stage at best and lose the war at most to a country with a smaller size and population than Russia. Putin will also likely face discontent at home and dwindling support from his political circles. Therefore, an invasion of Ukraine would only serve as a political suicide for Putin and Russia as a whole.