The Afghanistan Withdrawal and its Effects on International Relations

Introduction

On August 15th, 2021, the Taliban took control of Kabul and proclaimed the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. At the same time, the U.S. was hastily evacuating its embassy staff and Afghans who worked for the US government and military. Images of helicopters rushing to the embassy and carrying people along with it drew comparisons to the Fall of Saigon in 1975, with an army advancing at a lightning speed that completely caught its enemies off-guard, leading to a chaotic and messy evacuation. This is also Biden’s worst fear as he does not want to be remembered as the president who presided over the violent end of the 20-year war that might humiliate the United States as it sought to escape the country while leaving thousands behind, including those who have served the US. On Monday, August 16th, videos and photos of Afghans desperately trying to escape the Taliban rule stormed the airport and over-ran the tarmac, leading to delayed flights and the deployment of the US Army and helicopters to disperse the crowd. Hundreds ran alongside a US military transport plane in desperation and some even climbed on the plane, leading to several deaths according to officials, with human body parts found in landing gears. The airport was finally secured on the night of August 16th, when increased military presence restored order in the civilian side of the airport. With the situation stabilized, flights were able to resume and the evacuation effort was once again in full swing. When the evacuation ended on August 31st, more than 120,000 Afghan nationals and US personnel had been evacuated by the US military out of Afghanistan. But for many, the damage is already being done, and Biden, for good or ill, may be remembered as the president who presided over the chaotic end of the 20-year war with images and videos symbolizing the futility and humiliation of the United States after spending trillions of dollars and lives only to see the war went back to the way it started. Many questions and debates over who failed Afghanistan and which president is to be blamed for the failure will be going on for years to come. But before getting into political questions and finger-pointing, let us examine the effects of this withdrawal on international relations, particularly the relations of Afghanistan under the new regime and relations of the United States after the war and the withdrawal.

A U.S. Chinook helicopter flies near the U.S. Embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan, Sunday, Aug. 15, 2021 to help facilitate the evacuation from the country. On the same day, the Taliban took over Kabul. [AP]

Effects on the relations between Afghanistan and other countries

Afghanistan sits between four great powers: Iran, Pakistan, China, and Russia, with of them have been involved in the country’s affairs to some degree, with Pakistan being the most active since they are the main patrons of the Taliban, providing weapons and other forms of support as a means to increase the country’s influence over Afghanistan. The reason for this support is that the Taliban’s demographics are made up mainly of ethnic Pashtuns, whose regions of presence are mainly in southern Afghanistan, where Pakistan has a border with the country. Pakistan also has a sizable Pashtun minority and since successive Afghan governments have not recognized the Durand Line, which defines the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan and splits the Pashtun ethnic groups into two countries. As a result of this split, the group living in two countries tend to support each other. The logic goes that it would be better for Pakistan if Afghanistan is ruled by the Pashtuns since this would calm down irredentist movements in Pakistan. It would also provide political support for Pakistani leaders from the Pashtuns since they can credibly claim that they care for the group. Moreover, an Afghanistan ruled by a Pakistan-friendly regime would also deny India, Pakistan’s largest rival, a sphere of influence in the region as well as establishing a buffer with Iran, Pakistan’s other rivals. However, Pakistan does not have total control over the Taliban, and now that a new regime is forming in Afghanistan, they will be confident enough to not listen to Islamabad on every occasion. This was evidenced in a meeting between the leaders of the Taliban and Pakistan, in which the Pakistani head of military appeared to walk out of the meeting in annoyance over what he saw as the Taliban’s defiance to Pakistan’s demand that they should not take control of the whole country. Imran Khan, the prime minister of Pakistan, also said in a recent interview that the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan has been a loss for Pakistan in terms of leverages they have over the Taliban, as the withdrawal has emboldened them to retake the country, further prolonging the war that would also affect Pakistan in that it would cause a refugee crisis and a drain on economic activities. Iran, another country that has a border with Afghanistan, also has a large Afghan diaspora population and is concerned with a refugee crisis like Pakistan. Furthermore, Iran practices a branch of Islam called Shiite, while the Taliban practices Sunni, which exacerbates the tension between the two since there is a cold war in the Middle East that is running concurrently with the war in Afghanistan over which branch will lead the Muslim world. If the situation in Afghanistan escalates to the refugee crisis, combined with religious sectarianism, tensions could flare-up between Iran and the Taliban as Iranian leaders sought to control the security in the country’s frontiers. China, an anticipated superpower that is believed to possess the capability to challenge the U.S., is already making inroads in Afghanistan but stopped short of recognizing the new regime, promising new infrastructure and other forms of economic investment into the country as part of the Belt and Road Initiative, a strategy of China that aims to increase trade and China’s influence throughout Eurasia. But at the same time, the emergence of a new regime in Afghanistan worries China as well, since the Taliban’s resurgence could mean more Islamic fundamentalist groups causing troubles in China’s western provinces, which have large Muslim populations and are currently subjected under China’s pacification policies. Additionally, the attack on Kabul airport on August 28th by another terrorist group, ISIS-K, has also revealed another uncertain future for the war-torn country: the emergence of another terrorist group, more extreme than the Taliban, would drive the U.S. and regional powers into Afghanistan once more to root out the group. But to do so, they would need the support of the Taliban, an organization that the U.S. has just spent 20 years fighting against. If ISIS-K becomes more powerful, Afghanistan may come under direct occupation by Iran and Pakistan, and when the group is defeated, the country will likely be contested between the two powers, both of which possess weapons of mass destruction.

Afghanistan as a crossroads between Great Powers [Britannica]

Effects on the relations between the United States and other countries

During and after the U.S. withdrawal, many politicos have suggested that the botched evacuation has damaged U.S. credibility and prestige and that allies of the U.S. will be concerned about the US’ ability to support and protect them. The EU member states have even started considering “Strategic Autonomy”, a move that is said to give European countries greater capacity to conduct foreign operations without US support. This idea is particularly supported by Western European countries such as France and Germany, where the former has a strategic interest in the Muslim world and the latter feels that it has a moral obligation to protect vulnerable people, especially women and children who are at risk of being repressed from access to education and women’s rights. That being said, Eastern European states, whose primary concern is Russia, are hesitant of this proposal, as they see the importance of the American security guarantee to their sovereignty, especially in recent years when Russia has been making the aggressive moves in Ukraine to grab territories and conducting cyber operations to disrupt institutions and societies of Western countries. For American allies in the Pacific such as South Korea, Japan, the Philippines, and Taiwan, the flashpoint of conflict between the U.S. and China, the withdrawal may cause some concerns among these countries as they are just as fearful of American abandonment as the Europeans, but these countries have not issued strong criticism of the US’ botched operations like the European ones, as they have larger issues to concern with, particularly Chinese aggression on the sea. Russia and China, America’s main adversaries, generally welcome the withdrawal in public as many have speculated that China may tap into Afghanistan’s resources, including the widely speculated $1 trillion dollars of lithium, rare earth elements, and copper, all of which are important materials to the global energy reserves. But to access these resources, China has to integrate Afghanistan into the Belt and Road Initiative and build the necessary infrastructure for the country.

Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi (R) meeting with Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, political chief of Afghanistan’s Taliban, in Tianjin [Li Ran / Xinhua/AFP]